The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" is a bestselling book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events ("Black Swans") that have massive impact. It was published in 2007 by Random House. [1]

The book was seen as prescient, because a few months after it was published the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown and resulting financial crisis hit. The book's thesis was that we fool ourselves in believing we can predict risks and rewards, but we are unprepared for rare and disruptive events.[2]


  1. "The Black Swan".
  2. The Risk Maverick. Bloomberg Markets.